Forecasting Methods & Scenario Techniques

2. Semester Master: 1st Study cycle

The students:
• understand the relevance of scenario techniques in the context of corporate planning in volatile times
• know different methods of scenario techniques and are able to assess their applicability in practice
• are able to apply individual methods of scenario techniques
• know qualitative forecasting methods and are able to apply them practically

2. Semester: no information

Part A - Forecasting Methods:
• Overview of different forecasting methods
• Simple quantitative methods (especially time series analysis and causal methods, e.g. trend extrapolation or linear regression)
• Qualitative methods (e.g. Delphi method)

Part B - Scenario techniques:
• Overview of different scenario techniques
• Application options and examples

Ashby, S. (2022). Fundamantals of operational risk management: Understanding and implementing effective tools, policies and frameworks. London, UK: Kogan Page.
Bradfield, R. (2025). Unterstanding the future: An introduction to scenario planning. Berlin/Boston: Walter de Gruyter.
Burt, G. (2023). Evolution of scenario planning. Berlin/Boston: Walter de Gruyter.
Exler, M. W., & Situm, M. (2025) (Hrsg.). Restrukturierungs- und Turnaround-Management: Strategien, Erfolgsfaktoren und Best Practice für die Transformation. Berlin: Erich Schmidt Verlag.

Exam

German

2.5

A part of the course will be covered through e-learning. This involves a combination of online phases (an inductive method for independently developing knowledge and practicing tasks) and in-person phases (a deductive method in which support is provided during the learning process and knowledge is also conveyed through lectures).

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